Electric Vehicle Predictions 2011

Pike Research have put together a well reasoned piece of 'future gazing' that hits the right mix of practical expectation combined with 'real world' snags that will ultimately make of break the Electric Vehicle Markets.

Ballard Fuel Cell

As Autogas Network, we welcome these predictions as they highlight some of the significant practical and distribution issues with the 'pure' electric vehicle. Pike also introduce the most likely 'winner' as the fuel cell. Whilst not perceived as an 'electric vehicle' by the media, it is a mix of known fuels, passing through a 'magic [black?] box' to directly produce electricity [and heat]. The fuel cell will NOT burn the fuel, nor will there be any form of combustion [the root cause of most traffic related air pollution].

GM Fuel Cell Unit

The electricity from the fuel cell will power the vehicle's wheels. As it can use Hydrogen, CNG (Compressed Natural Gas) or LPG (Liquefied Petroleum Gas - From natural gas and oil fields) as 'fuel' [to directly generate electricity with no moving parts] its much more efficient than grid produced electricity and far more efficient than the outmoded combustion engine. Hydrogen distribution is problematic, but CNG and LPG are already readily available. Whilst these do give some minor air pollution they are a significant improvement over the too popular diesel engine.

The Pike Research Findings

The electric car will get its revenge in 2011 as many of the world's largest automotive OEMs begin selling thousands of plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) to consumers. Sales of charging infrastructure and PEVs, including both plug-in hybrids and battery electric vehicles, got off to a slower-than-anticipated start in 2010, with only a few vehicles being delivered at the end of December. Consequently, 2011 will be a year to make up for lost time. Rental fleets and car share programs will play an important role in providing many consumers with their first hands-on experience with a PEV.

British Police in Electric Smart: Not exactly Ideal?

Electric vehicle rollouts will receive considerable attention and scrutiny as the industry watches to see whether they meet up with consumer expectations. The PEVs' market performance will influence automakers' plans to introduce more models and to ramp up production. Any glitches in meeting production deadlines for vehicles or batteries and/or any negative consumer reaction will be magnified by the high level of interest.

Battery electric vehicles [may] will serve as a secondary vehicle for most households, while plug-in hybrids, with their long driving range, can serve as the primary vehicle. The notion of range anxiety will be largely dispelled through a combination of driver education and the emergence of strategically placed charging spots. While charging stations were installed by the handful in pockets around the globe in 2010, 2011 will see the installation of hundreds of charging stations in cities such as London, Barcelona, San Francisco and Nashville.

While many of these charging stations are likely to be underutilized initially, by 2012 they will be in greater demand as owners begin to travel further with their vehicles and become more familiar with where and how often to charge. Another electric vehicle category that will continue to develop is the fuel cell vehicle, which will remain on its slow drive toward a planned commercial launch in 2015 through larger fleet and consumer evaluations.

Two-wheel electric vehicles will see strong growth globally, and the market in North America is expected to grow by 27% in 2011. Pike Research has identified 10 key trends that will steer the course of PEVs for the remainder of the decade.

Main Predictions from Pike, with Comments by Autogas Network

1. The majority of people who drive a plug-in vehicle won't own it.
 The point being that ownership comes with risk in new technology. So most will drive a leased or pooled electric vehicle.

2. Automakers will get pushback from EV owners regarding the length of time it takes to fully charge a vehicle.

 Charging times due to the current high costs of batteries, are not practical for all but the most infrequent users. Although some talk of a system of battery swaps, this in itself gives rise to more problems.

3. Stop-start vehicles will arrive in the United States, albeit in small numbers.

 While Pike is looking at the US, the same will be true in Europe as 'high profile' leaders position themselves as the 'innovators'.

4. Many EV charging stations will spend the majority of their time idle.

 Certainly early on charging stations will be poorly utilised as only relatively a few cars will use them. Partly as they would be charged up overnight at 'home'.

5. Fuel cell vehicles will be sold to fleets and consumers in small but growing numbers

 As a leased vehicle, an Electric Hybrid and latterly fuel cell vehicle can hit the market earlier due to the buying power of fleets against the limited numbers of 'early technology adopters'.


6. Someone somewhere will have a bad EV experience and the media will over-react.

 What more can anybody say. Its what the media does best. Any over-reaction will cause a 'loss of confidence' which in turn will weaken demand.

7. The advanced battery category will heat up with M&A activity

 At the present time any radical improvement in battery technology will be seized upon as the next 'investment opportunity'. However without these advances current electric car practicalities are limited. Thus the Hybrid and fuel cell varieties have the advantage here.

8. "Range anxiety" will prove to be more fiction than fact.

Pike have noted that most 'average' car users travel only limited distances. Short journeys tend to cause more pollution, so the PEV

9. The best-selling EVs won't have four wheels.

 Pike have noted that electric motor bikes may become more practical particularly in our congested cities.

10. The landscape for charging equipment will undergo a seismic shift as the category swiftly moves toward becoming a commodity market

 At present charging equipment is very specialised. Until it becomes freely available and 'commodatised' prices will remain high and be a negative factor.

European LPG Association

Automotive LPG - Autogas a competitive alternative fuel for improved air quality so says the European LPGA.

A RECENT STUDY DEMONSTRATES THAT REPLACING DIESEL OR PETROL WITH LPG CAN BE DONE AT A COMPETITIVE COST WITH A BENEFICIAL IMPACT ON AIR QUALITY WHILST FURTHER REDUCING THE GREENHOUSE-EFFECT

Forthcoming EURO 4 and EURO 5 emission limits, as well as the introduction of cleaner conventional fuels, will significantly improve the level of regulated pollutants from vehicles in the next few years, but their introduction will still take some time.

Thus, in specific locations such as urban centres where air quality issues can be an immediate concern, Autogas is a solution, that contributes to improving local emissions. Autogas offers similar benefits to other gaseous fuel options such as CNG and is already widely available on the market today through an extensive retail network.

LPG, furthermore, improves supply security and meets the EU 20/20 challenge, meaning 20% of the European motor fuel market will be alternative fuels in 2020. LPG originates either from crude oil refining or through extraction from natural gas processing (the latter representing 60% of current LPG supply).

Recent test results of the European Emission Test Program (EETP) have confirmed the air quality benefits of Autogas vehicles. The results give a clear indication of the positive environmental impact of Autogas as an available, alternative fuel with a promising future.

More details Click Here

Australian Study Shows LPG is Best

Viewed objectively, the national and community benefits flowing from long-term local supply, widespread retail availability, lower community health costs, lower greenhouse emissions and quieter commercial vehicles, makes LPG the logical fuel of choice for vehicles operating in Australia.

The ALPGA believes that Autogas is a low carbon, high hydrogen fuel delivering immediate environmental and economic benefits to Australian businesses and consumers. As an abundant domestically available fuel and by providing greater energy choice, it increases the likelihood of Australia moving towards cleaner future transport fuels and supports energy security.

More  information on this report and other findings are on the Autogas-Network website -CLICK Here to read

CNG/LPG Fuel Cells for Cars

Open Access Article Originally Published: September 23, 2009 And Available from EV World

The hydrogen initiative is stalled. The hydrogen fuel cell cars work fine but no good solutions have been found to the problems of where to get the hydrogen, how to deliver it and how to store it. 95% of our hydrogen is made from natural gas, which is abundant on earth and already distributed at 1/3rd of the price of gasoline.

Three recent breakthroughs have made natural gas a very interesting fuel:

1. Ceramic fuel cells that can make electricity from natural gas at 60% efficiency.
2. ANG: Adsorption stores natural gas at low (500 psi) pressure in compact tanks.
3. A glut of cheap natural gas caused by new shale drilling/extraction techniques.

The fuel cell breakthrough is particularly important because it means a car can generate its own electricity more efficiently than a massive power plant! Big plants typically average 30% efficiency, so a 60% NG fuel cell hybrid is twice as efficient as an electric vehicle charged from the grid.

Fuel Cell in the Engine Bay

That means half as much fuel is consumed. Twice as efficient as an electric car is saying a lot because electric cars are already three times more efficient than conventional cars. This is because internal combustion engines are less than 30% efficient verses 90% for electric motors.

Natural gas fuel cell cars are thus about six times more efficient than today’s cars. Using 1/6th as much fuel means pollution is also 1/6th . But NG is inherently very clean. and has 30% lower carbon content and virtually no sulfur, mercury, volatiles, and Nox so pollution is way less than 1/6th.

Since NG fuel cells have a warm up time, the hybrid batteries must have enough capacity for all-electric operation until warm up is complete. After warm up, the fuel cell keeps the batteries charged and the batteries provide power for peak loads and acceleration and recapture energy on braking.

A Prius uses 16.8 kW for continuous 70 mph driving on a level road. The fuel cell must be able to supply this much power for steady driving. Natural gas is already distributed by pipeline to homes all over the US and UK, so home refueling is possible. Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) is already used to run five million vehicles worldwide. Pump prices for CNG are about one third of the price of gasoline in spite of the expensive ($350k), 3600 psi pumps and fittings currently used for delivery.

The pipeline cost of natural gas is only 1/4th of the cost of crude oil with the same energy content. If much simpler, 500 psi Adsorbed Natural Gas refueling is adopted, prices could be reduced even further.
Cost per mile for a NG fuel cell hybrid would currently be only 1/18th of present cars but could be reduced even further with low pressure ANG refueling! ANG fuel tanks contain activated carbon “sponges” that adsorb 160 times their own volume of natural gas. They can be made from Corn cobs , which have a network of nanoscale passageways that remain after carbonization. One gram of this material has as much adsorbing surface area as a football field.

When natural gas is adsorbed on a carbon surface it ceases to act like a gas. Dense storage at low pressure makes it possible to hide the much smaller tank inside the car's frame. Even if we kept the existing CNG high pressure storage, the tripled efficiency would allow fuel cylinders only 1/3rd as large as present CNG tanks.
So an NG fuel cell hybrid is a lot like a Chevy Volt with a fuel cell replacing the range extender (engine/generator) and a much smaller battery. Its battery only needs to be large enough to run the car during warm-up of the fuel cell, currently about 15 miles. The Chevy Volt's 40-mile battery is rumored to cost $5000, so the NG car's 15-mile battery would cost $3125 less. Incidentally, at these battery prices a 400-mile range pure electric car would need $50,000 worth of batteries!

Clearly, small batteries with range extenders are the way to go until we have a significant battery breakthrough. Pure electrics have other problems too: A 110v, 20A household plug can only supply 2.2 kW which means that, unless you add 220v service, 10 hours of home charging will only take you 10 x 2.2 x 4 mi/kW = 88 miles. Natural gas today is primarily a non-renewable, fossil fuel.

But people have already begun selling renewable gas into the pipeline. Landfills, manure piles and sewage plants that used to release significant amounts of methane into the atmosphere are now selling it as green gas. Biomass and garbage can also be gasified to add to the supply.

The energy balance of grass bio methane production is 50% better than annual crops now used. Though the US power grid uses significant hydro power and other renewables, CO2 emissions are still almost twice as much per kilowatt-hour as a 60% efficient NG fuel cell. In 2007 the US power grid emitted 605 grams/kWh.
A NG fuel cell emits only 327 grams. At 4mi/kWh that translates to about 151 grams per mile for a grid charged car verses 82 for the NG fuel cell car.

Someday the grid could be cleaned up so that electric cars charged from it are cleaner than NG fuel cell hybrids. EIA data makes it easy to track our progress towards this goal: In 1996 we emitted 627 grams of CO2 per kWh and by 2007 this was reduced to 605 grams.

That’s a 2-gram per year decrease. If we continue at that rate, it will take 139 years to equal what we can do now with a NG fuel cell. Recent years show even less progress. There was no improvement between 2006 and 2007. Plugging into the grid is, unfortunately, a bit like plugging into a lump of coal.

Infrastructure expansion also favors natural gas. Gas pipelines cost half as much to build as ugly overhead electric transmission lines of the same power capacity. Gas also has one fourth the transmission loss of electricity and much cheaper energy storage.

Depleted gas fields and salt caverns are already storing 4.1 Tcf of gas in the US. At 60% efficiency this could produce 1,970 gigawatt-hours of electricity. A very cheap battery! Fuel cell developers are in a race to commercialize suitable fuel cells. The first products using NG fuel cells are home CHP electricity generators that use their waste heat to make hot water. The fuel cells in these units produce only 2 kW but they can start up from an idle state in 5 or 6 minutes.

Scaling up to 15 kW and adapting to the tough environment of a car could take years. Another company is developing a fuel cell range extender that is fueled by methanol. Methanol has only half the energy density of gasoline but, because of the high efficiency, fuel tanks would still be smaller than current gasoline tanks. “Price at the pump” is the one thing that seems to get voters excited. Reducing fuel cost/mile by a factor of 18 with a fuel that is 97% from North America while using corncobs should generate some excitement. The hydrogen initiative should be immediately redirected to focus instead on a fuel that is plentifully available, transportable and storable.

Finally if the Governments of the US, UK Europe and the rest of the world wish to allow some kind of demarcation, as its a transport fuel (and thus subject to some form of road pricing tax) then LPG is already available as both a transport fuel and heating fuel. It is also subject to the tax as well. LPG whilst a more complex molecule could still be developed as the fuel cell of choice by the motor industry.

Possible Case for the LPG Treatment

The European version, called Jazz Hybrid, will be available in early 2011 and was unveiled at the 2010 Paris Motor Show.

The Honda Fit/Jazz for the European and Japanese markets will feature revised headlamps, new front grille, a leather seating option and a new Lime Green exterior color choice.

US Version called Fit in UK/Europe will be known as Jazz

Fuel economy estimated in accordance with European standard is around 65 miles per imperial gallon (4.3 L/100 km; 54 mpg-US) and CO2 emissions of 104g/km. It has the lowest carbon emission of automatic car in the B-segment.

In an interview, Kohei Hitomi, the project leader, admitted that to bring CO2 further down will affect some attributes that buyers of the car most value: bigger electric motor and battery will sacrifice space utility; to improve aerodynamics may have to make side mirrors smaller. He said there are benefits for customers to keep all the versatility. The drivetrain is the same drive system as Honda Insight. The advantages of the system are low cost, low weight and can be combined with manual transmission or continuous variable transmission.

The car is better suited than its diesel competitors in areas where most superminis inhibit most - city centres. It is more economical in urban conditions. Thanks to the instant torque of the electric motor, it has a much better engine response.

Honda has not decided on a U.S. launch for Fit hybrid, according to Koichi Kondo, Executive Vice President of Honda. “As for the future, it's open to question. We will carefully be watching the market situation.” Hitomi, as reported by Automotive News, sees that the current Fit offered in North American market has very good fuel mileage as it is and questions if buyers are willing to pay the extra for marginal mileage gains.

At Autogas Network we are always looking for new projects for conversion. At well at over 60 mpg and running on LPG at around 60p per litre this looks very interesting. Will report in 2011 about pilot conversion.

Cleaning Up Taxi Emissions

£1 million incentive fund to stimulate market for electric black cabs
* Eco-driving mandatory for new black cabbies by 2012

Lets hope that the headlong rush to Electric Cabs is tempered with some realism regarding the practicalities of LPG cabs. LPG Taxis are far superior to diesel taxis across a wide range of pollutant emission.LPG has 99% less soot than a diesel engine for a start.

The Mayor of London has today (Tuesday 14 December) announced the oldest, more polluting black cabs in the capital will lose their licence to operate, under tough new standards to improve air quality in the capital.

Road transport is responsible for around 80 per cent of airborne pollution (PM10) in central London where air quality is worst, with black cabs contributing 20 per cent of this. ‘Clearing the Air’, the Mayor’s final Air Quality Strategy published today, will demand that from 1 January 2012 no black cab over 15 years old will be licensed by the Taxi and Private Hire Office. Around 1,200 black cabs are likely to be more than 15 years old in 2012. The Mayor will introduce a requirement for all new taxis entering the fleet to meet the strictest vehicles standard from 1 April 2012*. In addition, currently, all taxis are subject to a single annual inspection by Transport for London (TfL).

From 2013, at the latest, instead of a once yearly overhaul, all taxis will be required to take two full MOT tests each year, but this will be done more simply and cost effectively at a local garage rather than at only three available inspection centres. This will ensure that the vehicles are operating as cleanly and efficiently as possible all the year round but with reduced bureaucracy. In addition, from January 2012 all aspiring cabbies will also be required to take a mandatory eco-driving course. Helping cabbies to drive more efficiently will not only help them to save money but also reduce emissions of pollutants and carbon dioxide.

The Mayor and TfL have also announced a £1 million fund to encourage taxi owners to upgrade to low emission vehicles such as electric black cabs. Taxi owners who are upgrading their vehicles will be able to avail of the fund to upgrade to the cleanest vehicles available. Further details of the fund will be announced in 2011.

Boris Johnson, Mayor of London, said: ‘London’s magnificent cabbies are famous the world over for their top notch service, but I also want the capital’s taxi fleet to match up to the highest environmental standards that a great city like ours deserves.


‘From 2012 when the world heads to London, we will remove the oldest, dirtiest cabs from our streets. But we are also offering a juicy carrot, with the establishment of a fund to help speed up the introduction of electric black cabs. This forms part of a robust package of long-term measures to progressively clean up London’s air.’

The Mayor’s Air Quality Strategy sets out a package of measures to clean up the capital. Just last week, the Mayor announced the creation of the UK’s only zero-emission bus route with the use of eight hydrogen buses that emit only water vapour. The bus route will go through some of London’s most polluted areas in central London. TfL has already begun the UK’s first trial applying dust suppressants at two central London locations with high levels of particulate matter pollution (PM10). The dust suppressant is a solution made up of Calcium Magnesium Acetate that literally sticks the particulate matter to the road and prevents it re-circulating in the air.

Other measures in the strategy include:

* Retrofitting older buses so that they meet the Euro IV standard for NOx;
* Introducing vans and minibuses to the LEZ from January 2012;
* Introducing a NOx standard into the LEZ from 2015;
* Encouraging the use of electric vehicles through schemes such as Source London;
* Updating and fully implementing guidance for reducing dust at construction and demolition sites;
* Using the planning system to make new developments ‘air quality neutral’;
* Energy efficiency programmes to reduce emissions from heating of homes and workplaces.

Implementation of the policies and proposals in the strategy is expected to reduce PM10 emissions in central London by around 13 per cent by 2011 and by about a third by 2015 (compared to 2008). Together with the targeted local measures in priority areas, modelling suggests that this will allow London to be compliant with legal limits by 2011. The strategy will also see NOx emissions fall by 35 per cent by 2015 (compared to 2008 levels).

The Mayor is already implementing a range of measures in London to improve air quality such as introducing a hybrid bus fleet, record levels of investment in cycling and programmes to cut emissions from homes and workplaces. The New Bus for London, due to enter service in 2012, will incorporate the latest hybrid technology and will be both 40 per cent more fuel efficient than conventional diesel buses and 15 per cent more fuel efficient than current London hybrid buses.

Electric Cars and Fuel Cells are the Future, BUT......

Electric Vehicle

There is no argument about the direction of the future of motor vehicles. All electric, Hybrid, Hydrogen Fuel cells etc. They are all being developed. But.

What are we going to do with the 806,000,000 petrol and diesel vehicles already out there? I mean firstly not everybody can go and buy an alternative vehicle right now or even in the medium term. In addition manufacturers and the raw materials markets could not cope either. So what's the compromise?

In practice the transition to alternative powered vehicles might take between 30-50 years. This is based on how a 'new' concept can become accepted as the 'conventional wisdom'. This occurs in all sorts of industries, from transport to construction. Reinforced concrete took 40 years to gain a place along side steel and brick. The diesel car took over 30 years in the UK to become 'accepted'. In addition technological advances along the way are also required.

Therefore an intermediate step towards 'cleaner' technologies and fuels is needed. Now that diesel vehicles have become almost 'standard' we have to look at the disadvantages of diesel as a fuel. Irrespective of the relatively low CO2 emission, diesel has many other unpleasant problems, such as soots or 'black carbon'.

These products of incomplete combustion are rather bad, in fact some are considered carcinogenic. They also explain why your engine oil gets so dirty so quickly. Diesel is a 'heavy fuel' with a very complex structure. During combustion many differing compounds are created. This is why diesels are less suited in urban environments such as city centres. Its also why the diesel taxi is now falling out of favour.

In Hong Kong for example there are no diesel taxis at all. Being a very densely populated area, diesel exhaust emissions are becoming problematic. Not just human health either. The Sulphur compounds can accelerate the erosion of buildings when combined with rain.

Therefore Autogas Network has decided that this transition fuel system should be built around LPG - Liquefied Petroleum Gas. LPG or Autogas is a mixture of Butane and Propane gases that have been lightly compressed to be stored in a compact fuel tank as a liquid. LPG has the added advantage that it is extremely clean burning with so little deposits from combustion that your engine oil will remain clean much longer (up to 70,000 miles is not unknown).

Autogas Network LPG Converted 2010 Vauxhall

Not only is it much cleaner than diesel and so ideal for high mileage taxis in urban locations, it emits less than 99.9% less soot than a diesel cab. Furthermore the infrastructure is already in place. In Europe there are over 8 million LPG dual fuel cars with over 32,000 filling stations. In the UK alone there are 1,440 filling stations. So its not like the future of cars; where we need additional filling points and infrastructure.

LPG or Autogas is the ideal intermediate fuel, the ideal compromise for cleaner cheaper motoring for all those existing petrol vehicles out there or still to be built. Let's not forget that the current motor manufacturers are still making brand new cars and have spent a huge amount of money in setting up production lines. These cannot just be switched off and electric cars produced - it will take years.